Science of Risk Management

What’s more primordial than fire? It’s easy to think that fire is a static threat, and defenses against it can be static. So it was surprising to see that changes in home design and contents are leading to fires spread much faster, and that the Canadian Commission on Building and Fire Codes is considering mandates for home sprinklers.

The CBC’s “Rise in fast-burning house fires heats up calls for sprinklers in homes” has a good discussion of the changing threat, the costs of mitigation, and the tradeoffs entailed.

While everyone else is talking about APT, I want to talk about risk thinking versus outcome thinking. I have a lot of colleagues who I respect who like to think about risk in some fascinating ways. For example, there’s the Risk Hose and SIRA folks. I’m inspired by To Encourage Biking, Cities Lose the Helmets:…

Read More Bicycling & Risk

Adam just posted a question about CEO “willingness to pay” (WTP) to avoid bad publicity regarding a breach event.  As it happens, we just submitted a paper to Workshop on the Economics of Information Security (WEIS) that proposes a breach impact estimation method that might apply to Adam’s question.  We use the WTP approach in a…

Read More New paper: "How Bad Is It? — A Branching Activity Model for Breach Impact Estimation"

The past 10 years have been the best in the country’s aviation history with 153 fatalities. That’s two deaths for every 100 million passengers on commercial flights, according to an Associated Press analysis of government accident data. The improvement is remarkable. Just a decade earlier, at the time the safest, passengers were 10 times as…

Read More Aviation Safety

Norm Marks of the famous Marks On Governance blog has posted his 2012 wishlist.  His blog limits the characters you can leave in a reply, so I thought I’d post mine here. 1.  Norm Wishes for “A globally-accepted organizational governance code, encompassing both risk management and internal control” Norm, if you mean encompassing both so…

Read More Discussing Norm Marks' GRC Wishlist for 2012

In possibly the worst article on risk assessment I’ve seen in a while, David Lacey of Computerworld gives us the “Six Myth’s Of Risk Assessment.”  This article is so patently bad, so heinously wrong, that it stuck in my caw enough to write this blog post.  So let’s discuss why Mr. Lacey has no clue…

Read More The One Where David Lacey's Article On Risk Makes Us All Stupider