Survey for How to Measure Anything In Cybersecurity Risk

This is a survey from Doug Hubbard, author of How To Measure Anything and he is
currently writing another book with Richard Seiersen (GM of Cyber Security at
GE Healthcare) titled How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk. As part of
the research for this book, they are asking for your assistance as an
information security professional by taking the following survey. It
is estimated to take 10 to 25 minutes to complete. In return for participating
in this survey, you will be invited to attend a webinar for a sneak-peek on the
book’s content. You will also be given a summary report of this survey. The
survey also includes requests for feedback on the survey itself.

https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/VMHDQ7N

What Good is Threat Intelligence Going to do Against That?

As you may be aware, I’m a fan of using Star Wars for security lessons, such as threat modeling or Saltzer and Schroeder. So I was pretty excited to see Wade Baker post “Luke in the Sky with Diamonds,” talking about threat intelligence, and he gets bonus points for crossover title. And I think it’s important that we see to fixing a hole in their argument.

So…Pardon me for asking, but what good is threat intelligence going to do against that?

In many ways, the diamond that Wade’s built shows a good understanding of the incident. (It may focus overmuch on Jedi Panda, to the practical exclusion of R2-D2, who we all know is the driving force through the movies.) The facts are laid out, they’re organized using the model, and all is well.

Most of my issues boil down to two questions. The first is how could any analysis of the Battle of Yavin fail to mention the crucial role played by Obi Wan Kenobi, and second, what the heck do you do with the data? (And a third, about the Diamond Model itself — how does this model work? Why is a lightsaber a capability, and an X-Wing a bit of infrastructure? Why is The Force counted as a capability, not an adversary to the Dark Side?)

To the first question, that of General Kenobi. As everyone knows, General Kenobi had infiltrated and sabotaged the Death Star that very day. The public breach reports state that “a sophisticated actor” was only able to sabotage a tractor beam controller before being caught, but how do we know that’s all he did? He was on board the station for hours, and could easily have disabled tractor beams that worked in the trenches, or other defenses that have not been revealed. We know that his associate, Yoda, was able to see into the future. We have to assume that they used this ability, and, in using it, created for themselves a set of potential outcomes, only one of which is modeled.

The second question is, okay, we have a model of what went wrong, and what do we do with it? The Death Star has been destroyed, what does all that modeling tell us about the Jedi Panda? About the Fortressa? (Which, I’ll note, is mentioned as infrastructure, but not in the textual analysis.) How do we turn data into action?

Depending on where you stand, it appears that Wade falls into several traps in this post. They are:

  • Adversary modeling and missing something. The analysis misses Ben Kenobi, and it barely touches on the fact that the Rebel Alliance exists. Getting all personal might lead an Imperial Commander to be overly focused on Skywalker, and miss the threat from Lando Calrissian, or other actors, to a second Death Star. Another element which is missed is the relationship between Vader and Skywalker. And while I don’t want to get choked for this, there’s a real issue that the Empire doesn’t handle failure well.
  • Hindsight biases are common — so common that the military has a phenomenon it calls ‘fighting the last war.’ This analysis focuses in on a limited set of actions, the ones which succeeded, but it’s not clear that they’re the ones most worth focusing on.
  • Actionability. This is a real problem for a lot of organizations which get interesting information, but do not yet have the organizational discipline to integrate it into operations effectively.

The issues here are not new. I discussed them in “Modeling Attackers and their Motives,” and I’ll quote myself to close:

Let me lay it out for you: the “sophisticated” attackers are using phishing to get a foothold, then dropping malware which talks to C&C servers in various ways. The phishing has three important variants you need to protect against: links to exploit web pages, documents containing exploits, and executables disguised as documents. If you can’t reliably prevent those things, detect them when you’ve missed, and respond when you discover you’ve missed, then digging into the motivations of your attackers may not be the best use of your time.

What I don’t know about the Diamond Model is how it does a better job at avoiding the traps and helping those who use it do better than other models. (I’m not saying it’s poor, I’m saying I don’t know and would like to see some empirical work on the subject.)

Towards a model of web browser security

One of the values of models is they can help us engage in areas where otherwise the detail is overwhelming. For example, C is a model of how a CPU works that allows engineers to defer certain details to the compiler, rather than writing in assembler. It empowers software developers to write for many CPU architectures at once. Many security flaws happen in areas the models simplify. For example, what if the stack grew away from the stack pointer, rather than towards it? The layout of the stack is a detail that is modeled away.

Information security is a broad industry, requiring and rewarding specialization. We often see intense specialization, which can naturally result in building expertise in silos, and tribal separation of knowledge create more gaps. At the same time, there is a stereotype that generalists end up focused on policy, or “risk management” where a lack of technical depth can hide. (That’s not to say that all risk managers are generalists or that there’s not real technical depth to some of them.)

If we want to enable more security generalists, and we want those generalists to remain grounded, we need to make it easier to learn about new areas. Part of that is good models, part of that is good exercises that appropriately balance challenge to skill level, part of that is the availability of mentoring, and I’m sure there are other parts I’m missing.

I enjoyed many things about Michael Zalewski’s book “The Tangled Web.” One thing I wanted was a better way to keep track of who attacks whom, to help me contextualize and remember the attacks. But such a model is not trivial to create. This morning, motivated by a conversation between Trey Ford and Chris Rohlf, I decided to take a stab at drafting a model for thinking about where the trust boundaries exist.

The words which open my threat modeling book are “all models are wrong, some models are useful.” I would appreciate feedback on this model. What’s missing, and why does it matter? What attacks require showing a new element in this software model?

Browser security
[Update 1 — please leave comments here, not on Twitter]

  1. Fabio Cerullo suggests the layout engine. It’s not clear to me what additional threats can be seen if you add this explicitly, perhaps because I’m not an expert.
  2. Fernando Montenegro asks about network services such as DNS, which I’m adding and also about shared trust (CA Certs), which overlap with a question about supply chain from Mayer Sharma.
  3. Chris Rohlf points out the “web browser protection profile.

I could be convinced otherwise, but think that the supply chain is best addressed by a separate model. Having a secure installation and update mechanism is an important mitigation of many types of bugs, but this model is for thinking about the boundaries between the components.

In reviewing the protection profile, it mentions the following threats:

Threat Comment
Malicious updates Out of scope (supply chain)
Malicious/flawed add on Out of scope (supply chain)
Network eavesdropping/attack Not showing all the data flows for simplicity (is this the right call?)
Data access Local storage is shown

Also, the protection profile is 88 pages long, and hard to engage with. While it provides far more detail and allows me to cross-check the software model, it doesn’t help me think about interactions between components.

End update 1]

Adam's new startup

A conversation with an old friend reminded me that there may be folks who follow this blog, but not the New School blog.

Over there, I’ve posted “Improving Security Effectiveness” about leaving Microsoft to work on my new company:

For the last few months, I’ve been working full time and talking with colleagues about a new way for security executives to measure the effectiveness of security programs. In very important ways, the ideas are new and non-obvious, and at the same time, they’re an evolution of the ideas that Andrew and I wrote about in the New School book that inspired this blog.

and about a job opening, “Seeking a technical leader for my new company:”

We have a new way to measure security effectiveness, and want someone who’ll drive to delivering the technology to customers, while building a great place for developers to ship and deploy important technology. We are very early in the building of the company. The right person will understand such a “green field” represents both opportunity and that we’ll have to build infrastructure as we grow.

This person might be a CTO, they might be a Chief Architect. They are certainly an experienced leader with strong references from peers, management and reports.